Addressing the Opportunity Myth in Merced County

Preamble: Many years ago I first read a report called The Opportunity Myth. Its findings were eye-opening and I vowed to apply the findings in the report to my work in Merced County. For the past six years I have done exactly that…with varying degrees of success. I am unwavering in my belief that the The Opportunity Myth was relevant in 2018 and continues to be so to this day. In writing this blog post, I want it to be clear that it is possible to critique the system without criticizing the people in that system.  Our school districts are perfectly designed to get the results they get…the teachers, however, are working as hard as they can with the resources they’ve been given. Teachers deserve all the credit they can get for their hard work. The system, however, warrants a good looking into to find ways to make the changes call for in The Opportunity Myth. Enough of the preamble…here is the blog I wrote…

In 2018, TNTP released a groundbreaking report titled The Opportunity Myth, shedding light on the disconnect between students’ classroom experiences and their future opportunities. The report’s findings challenge common assumptions about education and call for systemic change to ensure equitable learning opportunities. The report itself it the result of an in-depth analysis of five diverse school systems, rural and urban, district and charter comparing students’ views on their educational experiences and then observing how those experiences played out, in real time, in their classrooms. None of the schools in The Opportunity Myth are from Merced County, but the findings provide meaningful insights for how we might work to improve the mathematics instruction our students experience.

What is The Opportunity Myth?

First a bit of scene-setting. The “opportunity myth” refers to the false promise that merely attending school and completing assignments will adequately prepare students for future success. Many students, despite doing what is asked of them, are not given access to the high-quality learning experiences needed to meet their goals. This disparity exposes a systemic issue where fulfilling school requirements does not necessarily translate to meaningful preparation for college, careers, or life.

We see this disparity in postK-12 college and career settings:

• Nationwide, 40% of college students (including 66% of Black college students and 53% of Latinx college students) take at least one remedial course. Unfortunately, students who take even a single remedial course are 74% more likely to drop out.
• High school graduate opting for a career straight out of high school aren’t faring much better, with many employers reporting that high school graduates enter their roles missing the skills they need to do their jobs well.

In Merced County the opportunity myth is seen in the discrepancy between our high school graduation and A-G completion rates. During the 2022-2023 school year^[1], high schools in Merced County reported an average graduation rate of 92.5%, but only 30% of students satisfy the A-G requirements^[2]. Successfully navigating our K-12 system, it seems, does not prepare our students to access a full compliment of higher education choices.

Key Findings and Proposed Solutions for Merced County

The report reveals four significant challenges that exist many classrooms: grade-appropriate assignments, strong instruction, high expectations, deep engagement. Each of these challenges need to be addressed throughout the K-12 system such that success in our education system is predictive of subsequent performance in college and career. In other words, the opportunity myth that exists in Merced County is extinguished.  I’ll share each of those challenges and attempt to propose solutions that folks in Merced County might consider.

Grade-appropriate assignments

First, students often lack exposure to grade-appropriate assignments^[3]. Observations showed that only about a third of lessons included work meeting grade-level standards, even when students demonstrated their ability to perform at higher levels. Across core subjects, students spend more than 500 hours per school year on assignments that are not high-quality. This amounts to approximately 6 months of class time.

SOLUTION FOR MERCED COUNTY:  In July 2023, the California State Board adopted the 2023 revision of the California Mathematics Framework (CMF). As of this writing (January 2025), publishers are updating their textbooks to align with the updated CMF recommendations. Soon an army of instructional materials reviewers will analyze the submitted textbooks and in November 2025 will announce a list of those textbooks that align with the CMF^[4]. This means NOW is a great time for school districts to begin forming adoption committees who will read the mathematics framework and select a curriculum that TRULY aligns with the recommendations of the CMF. I’m hoping we do not repeat the errors of the last textbooks adoption cycle in which most of the textbooks that supposedly had the “Common Core seal of approval” did not, in fact, align with Common Core.

This is important because students who begin the year behind have greater access to grade-appropriate assignments, those students close the outcomes gap with their peers by more than seven months. It turns out, students who supposedly struggle with mathematics were more likely than not to have success on assignments that were grade-appropriate—when they were given the opportunity to try.

Strong Instruction

Second, strong instruction is frequently missing. Providing grade-appropriate textbooks and lessons is not enough because many students still do not have the opportunity to actually do the work themselves. Too often, teachers make instructional decisions to protect – or prevent – students from doing the thinking of the lesson. Teachers struggle to deliver lessons that encourage critical thinking, problem-solving, and a thorough exploration of the subject matter, leaving students without the tools they need to engage deeply with the content.

SOLUTION FOR MERCED COUNTY:  Let’s craft a countywide understanding of what strong instruction looks like for ALL of our students. The MCOE Math Team uses the Math Hierarchy of Needs framework to establish what must be provided to the student in order to experience high-quality instruction^[5]. Of course, Chapter 2 of the revised CMF lays out a similar definition of strong instruction with the Three Dimensions of Systemic Change^[6] and the 5 Components of Equitable and Engaging Instruction^[7].

High Expectations

Third, low expectations for students are common. Educators often underestimate their students’ potential, which limits access to rigorous learning opportunities and stifles academic growth. In The Opportunity Myth, even though 80% of the teachers agreed that rigorous standards and high expectations are necessary to properly prepare students for college and career, only half of those teachers believed their students were capable of doing the work.

SOLUTION FOR MERCED COUNTY:  As stated earlier, teachers make instructional decisions that prevent students from doing the active learning in the classroom. Once, high quality instructional materials and strong instruction is commonplace, we need to redouble our efforts to have high expectations for those students^[8]. In classrooms where teachers held higher expectations, students gained more than four months compared to their peers in typical classrooms. The key variable, it seems, is actually adults’ decisions more than the students themselves. At every grade level we need to support students who are temporarily struggling with a mathematics concept. Putting in place effective Tier II and Tier III interventions to complement strong Tier I instruction is the starting point. Using the state-provided FIABs to measure students against the expectations of the CAASPP is another important ingredient.

High schools might consider revamping their courses and pathways to align with the brilliant thinking of the Just Equations: Branching Out document that provides the playbook for how schools might increase equity of access for college-preparatory coursework AND increase the percentage of students who meet the A-G requirements.

Deep Engagement

Finally, classrooms often fail to foster deep engagement. Students spend much of their time on tasks that neither challenge nor inspire them, resulting in a lack of meaningful connections to the material and a diminished sense of motivation.

SOLUTION FOR MERCED COUNTY:  Classrooms with higher levels of engagement gained about two-and-a-half months of learning compared to their peers in typical classrooms. What does “engaging” look like in Merced County according to the California Math Framework? Let’s start by mathematics instruction that makes space for problem-solving and embraces productive struggle and mistake-making as a natural part of learning mathematics. We need to honor student thinking and encourage students to share their informal strategies as a necessary step in the journey toward more efficient algorithms.

This matters because students in classrooms with higher levels of engagement gain about two-and-a-half months of learning more than their peers in typical classrooms!

Wrapping things up

Breaking free from the opportunity myth requires collective action. By ensuring every student has access to rigorous, engaging, and supportive learning environments, we can help all learners achieve their full potential. The Opportunity Myth serves as both a wake-up call and a roadmap for those committed to educational equity.

The report highlights a pervasive issue in education: the gap between what students need and what they receive. Addressing this challenge demands bold changes, from curriculum choices to classroom practices. By prioritizing equity and excellence, we can transform schools into places where every student has the chance to thrive. The Merced County Office of Education Math Team is hard at work on this and would love the opportunity to partner with you and your site or district.

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